Our reading of the forecast models โ not a promise of sightings, and not the final call: a guide decides each day by 4 PM.
This is the same answer we give on WhatsApp โ built from the cloud forecast across our whole driving range, the hours of real darkness, space weather and the moon.
The models don't show a clear window for this night yet. That can change during the day, and we don't call a night off on a forecast โ we watch it and decide by 4 PM. If we do cancel, you choose another night or a full refund.
Moon at 26% โ darker skies make a faint aurora easier to pick out.
Forecast right now looks good โ the clear sky is about 4 h of driving away, and that is where we will hunt.
The forecast models disagree about this night, so treat it as a rough steer โ we reassess through the day.
Moon at 36% โ darker skies make a faint aurora easier to pick out.
The clear sky is about 4 h of driving away. To be there the moment the dark, clear window begins, we will likely head out earlier than usual โ around 18:00. Guests always hear about an earlier pickup well in advance.
Moon at 46% โ darker skies make a faint aurora easier to pick out.
A negative Bz points south โ that is the direction that opens the sky. What Kp and Bz actually mean โ
We do not rely on a single forecast. Cloud cover is read from several independent national weather services for every point in our driving range, and an hour only counts as clear when the majority of them agree.
Where they disagree, we say so rather than pick the friendliest one.
Clouds can't be forecast weeks ahead โ the moon can. A bright moon lifts the whole sky and washes out a faint aurora, while dark nights show it at its subtlest. The brightest nights around each full moon are marked below. They are still good nights when activity is strong, and the guarantee is the same on every night of the season. How the guarantee works
There may be activity in space weatherThe solar wind speed is higher than usual, mainly due to the coronal hole stream. A couple of coronal mass ejections have been ejected from the Sun, which are expected to affect the Earth tonight. The probability of aurorae is moderate for at least the next two nights. After that, the geomagnetic disturbances are expected to subside.
The Finnish Meteorological Institute's daily space weather review, translated. Original in Finnish: Read the original at FMI
Cloud forecasts: MET Norway / Yr (CC BY 4.0) ยท Finnish Meteorological Institute (CC BY 4.0) ยท SMHI (CC BY 4.0) โ Space weather: FMI and NOAA SWPC
Pick your dates, then ask me anything about the tour.
Answers use our live cloud, moon and availability data.Message us on WhatsApp