Our reading of the forecast models — not a promise of sightings, and not the final call: a guide decides each day by 4 PM.
This is the same answer we give on WhatsApp — built from the cloud forecast across our whole driving range, the hours of real darkness, space weather and the moon.
Tonight, clear sky is forecast close to Rovaniemi, and the forecasts agree. Aurora activity is low (Kp up to 2), but with little moonlight (moon 29% full), even a faint display can stand out. Wednesday: clear sky forecast close to Rovaniemi. Thursday: clear sky forecast close to Rovaniemi. Our guides make the final call each day by 4 PM.
Forecast looks good — the sky should be clear or nearly clear close to Rovaniemi, so we won't have to drive far.
Moon at 29% — darker skies make a faint aurora easier to pick out.
Forecast looks good — the sky should be clear or nearly clear close to Rovaniemi, so we won't have to drive far.
Moon at 20% — darker skies make a faint aurora easier to pick out.
Forecast looks good — the sky should be clear or nearly clear close to Rovaniemi, so we won't have to drive far.
Moon at 12% — darker skies make a faint aurora easier to pick out.
A negative Bz points south — that is the direction that opens the sky. What Kp and Bz actually mean →
We do not rely on a single forecast. Cloud cover is read from several independent national weather services for every point in our driving range, and an hour only counts as clear when the majority of them agree.
Where they disagree, we say so rather than pick the friendliest one.
Clouds can't be forecast weeks ahead — the moon can. A bright moon lifts the whole sky and washes out a faint aurora, while dark nights show it at its subtlest. The brightest nights around each full moon are marked below. They are still good nights when activity is strong, and the guarantee is the same on every night of the season. How the guarantee works
Space weather is quietThe solar wind speed has returned to a normal level, and the effects of the coronal hole streams are expected to remain minor. The probability of aurorae will increase slightly the day after tomorrow, as a part of a minor coronal mass ejection may reach the Earth, but its impact is associated with significant uncertainties.
The Finnish Meteorological Institute's daily space weather review, translated. Original in Finnish: Read the original at FMI
Cloud forecasts: MET Norway / Yr (CC BY 4.0) · Finnish Meteorological Institute (CC BY 4.0) · SMHI (CC BY 4.0) — Space weather: FMI and NOAA SWPC
Pick your dates, then ask me anything about the tour.
Answers use our live cloud, moon and availability data.Message us on WhatsApp